======================================================================== THW KIEL 2025/26 — EXTENDED IMPACT & PROJECTION ANALYSIS ======================================================================== ▶ 1. FINAL LEAGUE TABLE 2025/26 (source: Sportradar embed API) Tier = ELITE(1-4) / STRONG(5-9) / MID(10-14) / WEAK(15-18) Pos Team Pts W D L GF GA GD Tier H2H vs Kiel ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1. SC Magdeburg 62 30 2 1 1084 904 +180 ELITE 0W-1D-1L vs Kiel (1pts) 2. Füchse Berlin 51 25 1 6 1139 964 +175 ELITE 2W-0D-0L vs Kiel (4pts) 3. SG Flensburg-Handewitt 49 23 3 6 1126 1010 +116 ELITE 1W-0D-1L vs Kiel (2pts) 4. VfL Gummersbach 48 22 4 7 1039 915 +124 ELITE 1W-1D-0L vs Kiel (3pts) 5. THW Kiel 42 17 8 8 1012 976 +36 (host) ← KIEL 6. TBV Lemgo Lippe 40 18 4 11 987 946 +41 STRONG 0W-1D-0L vs Kiel (1pts) 7. MT Melsungen 38 17 4 11 942 929 +13 STRONG 1W-0D-1L vs Kiel (2pts) 8. Rhein-Neckar Löwen 37 17 3 13 997 953 +44 STRONG 0W-1D-1L vs Kiel (1pts) 9. FRISCH AUF! Göppingen 33 13 7 13 930 966 -36 STRONG 0W-0D-2L vs Kiel (0pts) 10. TSV Hannover-Burgdorf 28 11 6 16 983 995 -12 MID 0W-1D-1L vs Kiel (1pts) 11. Handball Sport Verein Hamburg 27 13 1 18 992 1021 -29 MID 0W-0D-2L vs Kiel (0pts) 12. TVB Stuttgart 26 9 8 16 976 1018 -42 MID 1W-0D-1L vs Kiel (2pts) 13. ThSV Eisenach 21 8 5 19 921 982 -61 MID 0W-2D-0L vs Kiel (2pts) 14. Bergischer HC 20 8 4 21 951 1043 -92 MID 0W-0D-2L vs Kiel (0pts) 15. HC Erlangen 19 7 5 21 919 991 -72 WEAK 0W-0D-2L vs Kiel (0pts) 16. HSG Wetzlar 17 7 3 22 907 1006 -99 WEAK 1W-0D-1L vs Kiel (2pts) 17. GWD Minden 17 6 5 22 917 1064 -147 WEAK 1W-0D-1L vs Kiel (2pts) 18. SC DHfK Leipzig 13 3 7 23 916 1055 -139 WEAK 0W-1D-1L vs Kiel (1pts) THW Kiel 2025/26: Pos 5 | 17W-8D-8L = 42 pts Gap to 4th (Gummersbach 48 pts): +6 pts Gap to champion (Magdeburg 62 pts): +20 pts ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ▶ 2. SKIPAGØTU IMPACT vs OPPONENT QUALITY Metric WITH (21g) WITHOUT (12g) DIFF ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Record 12W-6D-3L 5W-2D-5L Points per game 1.43 1.00 -0.43 Goals scored avg 31.6 29.1 -2.5 Goals conceded avg 29.6 29.5 -0.1 BY OPPONENT TIER (WITH Skipagøtu): Tier Games Record Pts/Gm ──────────────────────────────────────── ELITE 4 1W-1D-2L 0.75 STRONG 6 3W-2D-1L 1.33 MID 7 4W-3D-0L 1.57 WEAK 4 4W-0D-0L 2.00 BY OPPONENT TIER (WITHOUT Skipagøtu): Tier Games Record Pts/Gm ──────────────────────────────────────── ELITE 4 1W-1D-2L 0.75 STRONG 1 1W-0D-0L 2.00 MID 3 2W-0D-1L 1.33 WEAK 4 1W-1D-2L 0.75 DETAILED LOG — WITH Skipagøtu (sorted by opponent quality): Rnd Date Opponent Pos Tier Score Res Skip ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 21 2026-02-15 SC Magdeburg # 1 ELITE 31-29 W ✅ 12 2025-11-15 Füchse Berlin # 2 ELITE 29-32 L ✅ 8 2025-10-11 SG Flensburg-Handewitt # 3 ELITE 34-36 L ✅ 10 2025-10-23 VfL Gummersbach # 4 ELITE 25-25 D ✅ 17 2025-12-14 TBV Lemgo Lippe # 6 STRONG 23-23 D ✅ 9 2025-10-18 MT Melsungen # 7 STRONG 31-29 W ✅ 26 2026-03-27 MT Melsungen # 7 STRONG 29-30 L ✅ 7 2025-10-05 Rhein-Neckar Löwen # 8 STRONG 31-31 D ✅ 20 2026-02-11 Rhein-Neckar Löwen # 8 STRONG 28-27 W ✅ 13 2025-11-22 FRISCH AUF! Göppingen # 9 STRONG 34-30 W ✅ 3 2025-09-18 TSV Hannover-Burgdorf #10 MID 40-34 W ✅ 18 2025-12-20 TSV Hannover-Burgdorf #10 MID 29-29 D ✅ 4 2025-09-13 Handball Sport Verein Hamburg #11 MID 27-25 W ✅ 16 2025-12-10 TVB Stuttgart #12 MID 33-32 W ✅ 14 2025-11-28 ThSV Eisenach #13 MID 27-27 D ✅ 27 2026-04-04 ThSV Eisenach #13 MID 30-30 D ✅ 11 2025-11-09 Bergischer HC #14 MID 43-35 W ✅ 1 2025-08-28 HC Erlangen #15 WEAK 31-29 W ✅ 2 2025-09-03 HSG Wetzlar #16 WEAK 34-30 W ✅ 15 2025-09-25 GWD Minden #17 WEAK 33-25 W ✅ 5 2025-09-21 SC DHfK Leipzig #18 WEAK 41-34 W ✅ DETAILED LOG — WITHOUT Skipagøtu: Rnd Date Opponent Pos Tier Score Res ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 6 2025-12-23 SC Magdeburg # 1 ELITE 26-26 D ← BENCH DNP 31 2026-05-10 Füchse Berlin # 2 ELITE 28-35 L 25 2026-03-14 SG Flensburg-Handewitt # 3 ELITE 37-33 W 23 2026-02-28 VfL Gummersbach # 4 ELITE 26-34 L 22 2026-02-21 FRISCH AUF! Göppingen # 9 STRONG 28-24 W 28 2026-04-12 Handball Sport Verein Hamburg #11 MID 34-27 W 24 2026-03-05 TVB Stuttgart #12 MID 27-32 L 32 2026-05-24 Bergischer HC #14 MID 32-23 W 19 2025-12-26 HC Erlangen #15 WEAK 28-25 W 30 2026-05-02 HSG Wetzlar #16 WEAK 25-33 L 33 2026-06-03 GWD Minden #17 WEAK 30-34 L 29 2026-04-25 SC DHfK Leipzig #18 WEAK 28-28 D ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ▶ 3. PROJECTION: SKIPAGØTU HEALTHY ALL 33 GAMES Actual 2025/26: 17W-8D-8L = 42 pts Statistical model (apply WITH rate 1.429 pts/gm × 33 games): → Projected: 47 pts (+5 vs actual) Game-by-game analysis (12 absent games): Rnd Opponent Tier Actual GD Projected ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 6 SC Magdeburg ELITE D 26-26 +0 W → +1pt 19 HC Erlangen WEAK W 28-25 +3 W (stays) 22 FRISCH AUF! Göppingen STRONG W 28-24 +4 W (stays) 23 VfL Gummersbach ELITE L 26-34 -8 L (stays) heavy 24 TVB Stuttgart MID L 27-32 -5 D/L marginal 25 SG Flensburg-Handewitt ELITE W 37-33 +4 W (stays) 28 Handball Sport Verein Hamburg MID W 34-27 +7 W (stays) 29 SC DHfK Leipzig WEAK D 28-28 +0 W → +1pt 30 HSG Wetzlar WEAK L 25-33 -8 L (stays) heavy 31 Füchse Berlin ELITE L 28-35 -7 L (stays) heavy 32 Bergischer HC MID W 32-23 +9 W (stays) 33 GWD Minden WEAK L 30-34 -4 D → +1pt → Game-by-game projection: 45 pts (+3 vs actual) Estimated record: 19W-7D-7L ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ▶ 4. PROJECTION: SKIPAGØTU + MADSEN BOTH HEALTHY ALL 33 GAMES Madsen's stats: 6 games | 5.2 goals/gm | 2.7 assists/gm | HPI avg 78.3 Madsen played rounds: ['1', '15', '2', '3', '4', '5'] Actual results by availability: Scenario Games Record Pts/Gm ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Both Skip + Madsen 6 6W-0D-0L 2.00 Skip only (no Madsen) 15 6W-6D-3L 1.20 Neither (Skip + Madsen absent) 12 5W-2D-5L 1.00 Madsen marginal lift (Both vs Skip-only): 2.00 - 1.20 = +0.80 pts/gm Note: Small sample (6 both-games) — use with caution. FULL PROJECTION (both healthy all 33 games): ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Starting from Skip-healthy baseline │ │ + Madsen's marginal lift over 27 missed games: │ │ 15 Skip-only games × 0.80 lift = +12.0 pts │ │ 12 neither games × 0.64 lift = +7.7 pts │ │ Total Madsen contribution: +19.7 pts │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ▶ 5. SEASON SUMMARY — WHAT-IF COMPARISON Scenario Pts Est.Pos vs Actual ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Actual 2025/26 42 5. — + Skip healthy (game-by-game model) 45 5. +3 + Skip healthy (statistical model) 47 5. +5 + Both healthy G-b-G 65 1. +23 + Both healthy statistical 66 1. +24 + Both healthy conservative (+11 pts) 56 2. +14 Note: Estimated Pos assumes other 17 teams' points unchanged. Cap = 66 pts (maximum possible: 33 games × 2). Magdeburg champion record: 30W-2D-1L = 62 pts (the benchmark). Madsen lift (+0.80 pts/gm) is from a 6-game sample — likely inflated (those 6 games were vs. 3 WEAK + 2 MID + 1 STRONG opponents). Conservative Madsen estimate: +0.3-0.5 pts/gm × 27 games → +8-14 pts CONTEXT — Final table (top 8 + Kiel): Pos Team Pts 1. SC Magdeburg 62 2. Füchse Berlin 51 3. SG Flensburg-Handewitt 49 4. VfL Gummersbach 48 5. THW Kiel 42 ← actual Kiel 6. TBV Lemgo Lippe 40 7. MT Melsungen 38 8. Rhein-Neckar Löwen 37 9. FRISCH AUF! Göppingen 33 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── NOTES & METHODOLOGY ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Skipagøtu participation: 21 actual games (rounds 1-5, 7-18, 20-21, 26-27) Madsen participation: 6 games (rounds 1-5, 15) — injured rest of season Both available together: 6 games (rounds 1-5, 15) Projection methodology: • Statistical model: Linear extrapolation of WITH rate (pts/gm) to all 33 games • Game-by-game model: Each "without" game re-evaluated: L by 1-2: → W (+2 pts) — Skipagøtu's ~+2.5 goals/gm closes the gap L by 3-4: → D (+1 pt) — Narrows but may not fully flip L by 5+: → L (0 pts) — Gap too large even with him D: → W (+1 pt) — His output converts most draws to wins W: → W (0 pts) — Stays win • Madsen lift: Measured from actual games played (both vs skip-only sample) • All projections are estimates. Actual outcomes also depend on opponent form, home/away, fatigue, other injuries, and in-game variation.